Friday, October 23, 2020

People are Dying Because of Misinformation and Bad Science, including about Remdesivir as well as HCQ

So they did a study on this new antiviral drug Remdesivir     https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2007764

We conducted a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial of intravenous remdesivir in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either remdesivir (200 mg loading dose on day 1, followed by 100 mg daily for up to 9 additional days) or placebo for up to 10 days. The primary outcome was the time to recovery, defined by either discharge from the hospital or hospitalization for infection-control purposes only....

Our data show that remdesivir was superior to placebo in shortening the time to recovery in adults who were hospitalized with Covid-19 and had evidence of lower respiratory tract infection. 

Many questions come to mind in the light of what I know about the hydroxychloroquine debacle.

I don't know much about this new drug but it's called an antiviral, same as HCQ, which works to prevent replication of the virus in the cells.  It seems that both do that, they work the same way.

That being the case is it fair to guess that Remdesivir also works best in the early stages of the disease and becomes useless when the disease has progressed to the severe stage when there is immune-system overreaction and inflammation throughout the body?  \

If so, this study is just as irrelevant as the ones done on hydroxychloroquine.  That is, as they say, it was done on HOSPITALIZED patients, who have progressed beyond the early stages to be sick enough for admission to the hospital.  THEREFORE, if Rendesivir works similarly to HCQ, it was given to them after the window of opportunity had already passed.  It may nevertheless work as long as it is not TOO far past that window.

We are also not told the ages of the patients.  They were "randomized" as a total group, but all we know about them is that they were all "adults."  

But don't we also know about this disease that it has over a 99% recovery rate in general, that the younger patients are most likely to recover in the greatest numbers, and that it is the patients over 60 or with underlying diseases such as obesity, diabet4es, asthma and so on, who are at greatest risk of dying?  

We supposedly KNOW this.  So what is the point of a general randomization with a general  group of "adults" whose ages and possible co-morbidities are not given?  Wouldn't we be able to predict just from that general information about the susceptibility of different populations that those who are younger and healthier will survive it in greater numbers anyway, so that there would be no way to assess the contribution of an antiviral drug to their recovery?  It is possible, it seems to me, that just as with the Ford study of HCQ that came to a positive conclusion, this study of the new drug may simply be recording the survival of the low risk group that would have survived anyway, and nothing about the effect of the drug at all.  There is no way to know.  And some died in both studies, no doubt because the drug was administered too late to do any good, WHICH SHOULD HAVE BEEN KNOWN ALREADY BUT FOR SOME REASON WASN'T.  Since neither study reports ont he ages or co-morbid conditions of those who survived and those who died there is no way to know anything at all about the effect of the drug.

Those who have been defending Hydroxychloroquine as an effective antiviral therapeutic for COVID-19 have consistently used it with the high-risk ppopulation, the older ones and those with co-morbidities, who should be given it, and in the very early stages.  It should be effective in reducing the severity of the disease with any age group but there is not much point in giving it to the low-risk population.   AND if Rendesivir does work in the same way that HCQ works, giving it to hospitalized patients is counterproductive.  It would work best in the early stages of the disease as HCQ does.

In other words this is just another big fat irrelevant study based on amazing ignorance.  We're supposed to respect the "science" but this is such bad science it's laughable.

Just to sum up for Hydroxychloroquine and probably antivirals in general:I

  • tt is extremely effective, even a 100% cure, if used within the first seven days of symptoms or a positive test for  COVID.  If used at the right time NOBODY SHOULD DIE OF THE VIRUS AT ALL.  If they are already very sick they may die of that illness but not the virus.
  • It would work for all who have the disease, but since the low-risk population would likely survive even without treatment it skews the important statistics to include them.
  • After the disease has progressed to the point that the immune system's overreaction has taken over with the inflammatory response, difficulty breathing etc., no antiviral drug is going to be helpful at all.  It may be that there is an intermediate stage where it can sometimes help but nobody is studying any of these questions.
  • Conscientious reputable doctors have lost their jobs, had their websites taken down, and been banned from social media for reporting on their positive results with HCQ, which they were using correctly.  They had enormously positive results because they used it with the high risk patients in the early stages of the illness, thus saving the lives of the ones who are at highest risk of dying of this virus.  This is what the studies should be focused on and it is a strange irrationality that does not discriminate between populations based on their ages and co-morbidities, and adminsters the drug after the disease has become severe.  
  • If Remdesivir is similar to HCQ in how it works, fine, since it so far doesn't have the problem of political suppression against it, but if it is subjected to the same kinds of irrational assumptions in studies of it, it will never show the highly positive results it is capable of with the high risk population.
  •  While Remdesivir may be as effective as HCQ, since HCQ has a known 65-year old track record of safety and is a lot cheaper than the new drug, it should be the treatmet of choice.   However, since both are being subjected to irrational misuse based on misinformation, that has to stop first.

The correct information about the use of HCQ, and probably antivirals in general, has been available from the ver beginning, and for this information I refer you to the long article I included in the previous post by Dr. Steven Hatfill.   

(An Effective COVID Treatment the Media Continue to Besmirch     https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/08/04/an_effective_covid_treatment_the_media_continues_to_besmirch_143875.htmlI)

The doctors who have used it with great success have been silenced either because of completely unnecessary ignorance or political maliciousness.  I for one would like to see a massive movement to sue those who have suppressed the truth, which has led to thousands upon thousands of unnecessary deaths from this virus.

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